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Forever Young's avatar

Fascinating article

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tgb's avatar

Very cool story. However, the unlikeliness of Hare's story seem to be highly overstated. A cold spell may have been unlikely, but we can't count that against Hare's account given that we know it actually happened. Another of the coincidences is also common to the other account: he still had to luck across the correct mold by chance. So the only distinguishing unlikelihood is Fleming forgetting to incubate (or the incubator failing, etc.) the plate, which is hardly winning the Powerball unlikely.

In contrast, the other hypothesis (at least as presented here) seems like it would have been easy to back up if it were true. Did Fleming test any other molds for lysozymes in his lab notebook or is penicillium the first and only mold recorded? Did he record any other lysozyme searching experiments happening at this time (or near this time)? And what exactly where the staph experiments he was working on at the time (was it being used a lysozyme control already as hypothesized)? All of this seems like it should be at least partially present in the lab notebooks and so would be easy to support the Root-Bernstein theory if true. If not present at all, it makes Root-Bernstein harder to believe. Perhaps these were omitted for brevity but they should be verifiable.

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